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Emergence and Collapse of Early VillagesModels of Central Mesa Verde Archaeology$
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Timothy Kohler and Mark Varien

Print publication date: 2012

Print ISBN-13: 9780520270145

Published to California Scholarship Online: September 2012

DOI: 10.1525/california/9780520270145.001.0001

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Exercising the Model

Exercising the Model

Assessing Changes in Settlement Location and Efficiency

(p.153) Ten Exercising the Model
Emergence and Collapse of Early Villages

Timothy A. Kohler

R. Kyle Bocinsky

Stefani Crabtree

Ben Ford

University of California Press

Comparison between the real and simulated settlement distributions allows us to assess the goodness-of-fit between them. Since our agents optimize their locations, this is also a measure of the extent to which the real households optimized their locations, which we call “settlement efficiency.” Settlement efficiency tends to peak at the end of each population cycle, as households were leaving the area. We also develop methods for determining which combinations of parameters maximize the goodness-of-fit as that changes through time. This reveals two distinct settlement regimes, separated at AD 1060.

Keywords:   goodness-of-fit, settlement efficiency, settlement regimes, parameter selection, model simplification, causes for depopulation, Village Ecodynamics Project

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