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Emerging Avian Disease$
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Ellen Paul

Print publication date: 2012

Print ISBN-13: 9780520272378

Published to California Scholarship Online: September 2012

DOI: 10.1525/california/9780520272378.001.0001

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Prototype System for Tracking and Forecasting Highly Pathogenic H5N1 Avian Influenza Spread in North America

Prototype System for Tracking and Forecasting Highly Pathogenic H5N1 Avian Influenza Spread in North America

Chapter:
(p.67) Chapter Six Prototype System for Tracking and Forecasting Highly Pathogenic H5N1 Avian Influenza Spread in North America
Source:
Emerging Avian Disease
Author(s):

A. Townsend Peterson

Publisher:
University of California Press
DOI:10.1525/california/9780520272378.003.0006

The recent emergence of a highly pathogenic strain (H5N1) of avian influenza that affects both birds and humans has raised global concern about its spread. Given the rapid spread of the disease and the desire for proactive monitoring and preparedness, I present a prototype forecasting framework for H5N1 dispersal for when/ if it arrives in North America via migratory bird movements. The prototype summarizes movement patterns by six species of arctic-breeding Anseriformes and emphasizes the importance of spread along all coasts of North America, as well as along the lower Mississippi River. This forecasting system is applicable only to the extent that migratory birds are the principal mode of dispersal and spread of the disease. The H5N1 situation calls for considerable effort in (1) understanding details of bird migration globally, (2) sharing avian biodiversity data globally, and (3) exploring novel approaches to data analysis and interpretation.

Keywords:   avian influenza, forecasting, H5N1, migratory birds, waterbirds

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