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Urban Bird Ecology and Conservation$
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Christopher A. Lepczyk and Paige S. Warren

Print publication date: 2012

Print ISBN-13: 9780520273092

Published to California Scholarship Online: May 2013

DOI: 10.1525/california/9780520273092.001.0001

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PRINTED FROM CALIFORNIA SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.california.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright University of California Press, 2021. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in CALSO for personal use.date: 24 September 2021

Predicting Avian Community Responses to Increasing Urbanization

Predicting Avian Community Responses to Increasing Urbanization

(p.223) Chapter Fifteen Predicting Avian Community Responses to Increasing Urbanization
Urban Bird Ecology and Conservation

Jeffrey Hepinstall-Cymerman

John M. Marzluff

Marina Alberti

University of California Press

We predicted changes in avian communities that are likely to occur given predicted land cover and land use twenty-eight years into the future for the lowlands of the Central Puget Sound of western Washington state (USA), an area undergoing significant urban development. We applied avian models derived from seven years of field studies to predicted land use and land cover. We predicted that bird communities will become spatially partitioned and dominated by either synanthropic and early successional species or resilient native forest birds. Native forest birds will likely become increasingly reliant on higher elevation forests. The high spatial resolution of our models allowed us to explore how the amount and pattern of future development may influence avian communities.

Keywords:   avian abundance, avian species richness, modeling, land cover change, land use change, urban development, predictive models, urban ecology

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